DXY is stirring as Trump turns neocon. AUD slumped on WWIII. Lead boots are rock solid. Oil is still not overly worried. Metals nervy. Big miners are in the bear market of a lifetime. EM stocks puke. Junk OK. The ‘ol safe haven is back. As stocks stumble. The whole damn world is short DXY
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Last week I wrote about the dilemma of how to estimate a two-party-preferred vote in Bradfield. An actual two-party-preferred count has not been conducted between Liberal and Labor in that seat, and may not be conducted for some time. At the time I attempted to assess the likely two-party-preferred vote, but I expected that a more accurate calculation could be done once the distribution of preferences (including the three-candidate-preferred count) was published.
The past month has exposed the fallacy of the Albanese government’s target to build 1.2 million homes over five years, which commenced on 1 July 2024. The federal government’s own advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), forecast that only 938,000 dwellings will be built nationwide by mid-2029, 262,000 below the target.
This is as serious as it gets. Let’s survey the chessboard - from micro to macro.
The crying shadow in the funeral dance,
The loud lament of the disconsolate chimera.
T. S. Eliot, Burnt Norton
Iran Now First Line of Defense of BRICS and the Global South
BY PEPE ESCOBAR
Yesterday’s statement by Defence Minister Richard Marles that Australia’s geography and continent would be crucial to any United States prosecution of a war against China will go down as a dark moment in Australia’s history.
Australia’s manufacturing sector hit a record low share of GDP in the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) national accounts. In Q1 2025, the manufacturing share of GDP fell to just 5.1%, down from 8.9% two decades ago and from 15% in the mid-1970s. Australia’s manufacturing share is also the smallest in the OECD, making
Well, Ukraine launched one of the most powerful attacks against Russia since 2022. On the first day of the month, five Russian military bases were hit by drones infiltrated into Russian territory and remotely operated. They allegedly disabled 40 fighter jets.
Prod the bear with a short stick… and then scream for help and jump into daddy’s lap!
The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) expressed support for Israel's security in a joint statement amid the escalation with Iran, pointing to the importance of de-escalation in the region.
The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate risk markets as Trump runs away from the G7 meeting tweeting out incoherent threats and deals while further strikes against oil tankers and other targets show the conflict spreading. The USD remains somewhat weak although Yen took a small back seat on today’s BOJ meeting with a taper plan
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