Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary
MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA, notes that markets have priced a 95% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the official cash rate by 0.25% at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. “Both the Q1 25 trimmed mean CPI and the Q1 25 wage price index printed right in line with the

The post Green light for 0.25% rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Peter Cook, cross-posted from Pearls & Irritations. If ecological sustainability must be the basis for population policy, as argued by Jenny Goldie, then a vital ingredient for sustainability is water – the essence of life. If population policy requires identifying a desirable population size for Australia in the future, we must consider whether there will be enough

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 12:30 Source

For a short while, anyway, Goldman. Both IMF and Elane (a Chinese shipping data company) provide vessel traffic data categorized by ship type. The IMF has developed a sophisticated algorithm to project export and import volume for major ports in China. While they generate daily series,the data is published weekly with a one-week lag. Elane

The post Chinese exports crater (sort of) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 12:00 Source

This comes straight from the annals of the Department of Redundancy Department. Via Bloomberg: Australia’s Productivity Commission has identified 15 priority reforms to examine in the course of five inquiries it’s conducting for the government to try to boost economic efficiency and raise living standards. The five inquiries being conducted are: Creating a dynamic and resilient economy

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 11:30 Source

You can’t keep a good Titanic up, and there’s no better example than Chinese property, which continues to sink despite Beijing’s next efforts. The price hole ripped into her side is still sucking in water. The iceberg of too high real interest rates is slowly melting, but why buy either of the below when you

The post Chinese property keeps on sinking appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Monday, May 19, 2025 - 11:23 Source

For today’s booth map of the day I’ve gone to Calwell, the most complex seat of 2025. This booth map shows the primary vote for Labor, Liberal and the two leading independents, and swings for Labor and Liberal.

The major parties lost primary votes pretty much all over the seat. The biggest swings, but also the biggest primary votes for the two independents, appear to be in the geographic middle of the seat, although you’d probably describe it as the north of the seat when factoring in how the outer north of the seat doesn’t have that many booths.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 11:00 Source

China (31.5% in 2023) and India (8.1% share in 2023) are driving the growth in global carbon emissions. The reason is simple: both have an insatiable appetite for coal. The following chart from Oxford Economics on electricity generation sources tells the tale. While the developed world has weaned itself off coal over the past decade,

The post China, India double-down on coal appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Market Ear wraps us up. Fade the rip? “…one of our contrarian trading rules…when >88% of MSCI global stock indices trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages then you sell, and vice-versa; currently 84% of MSCI indices trading above 50dma/200dma”…global stock markets v close to “overbought”…good “fade-the-rip” reminder” (Hartnett) Teflon tech NASDAQ at

The post BTFD returns appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Steel is showing the tariff strain. We are entering the year’s weakest seasonal period so iron ore ought to follow. Chinese property is weak. Export volumes have held up. But is it all diversion. Sooner or later, the crashed prices needed to muscle into new markets will flow back up the supply chain. Steel demand

The post Iron ore shows the tariff strain appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, May 19, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Applying renormalization to bullies successfully transformed Pete & Pete's Endless Mike into Finite Mike.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published data last month revealing that Victorians pay the highest state and local taxes in the country. Victorian state and local government taxes were $6,348 per capita in 2023-24, $654 (11.5%) higher than the state and territory average. Victoria also saw a 40.5% increase in state and local government

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 19, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets seem to have concluded that the Trump Tariff Tax Trade Tiff is nearly over, and everything will go back to being normal, even though almost all the macroeconomic indicators suggest otherwise as the US economy slows down as stagflation rears its ugly head. The Trump regime ability to goose the stock market back

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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