MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 12:30
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Here comes the bear doves, via The AFR: Tim Toohey was the local chief economist at Goldman Sachs for more than a decade. Now at major money manager Yarra Capital, Toohey said he expected five quarter-point rate cuts, to 2.6%, by August next year. Toohey said he had two reasons for this unorthodox position. First, The post Toohey: Interest rates to crash appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 12:14
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Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 12:08
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MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 12:00
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Victoria has become an economic leech on the nation. In 2024-25, Victoria received a massive $3.8 billion boost in its GST, whereas Queensland lost $384 million and NSW lost $188 million. Victoria also received $411 million in additional grants from the Commonwealth in 2024-25. For 2025–2026, Victoria’s GST allocation was increased again by $3.7 billion, The post Victoria is a giant economic sinkhole appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 11:49
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MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 11:30
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According to Robert Gottliebsen, the architect of Australia’s compulsory superannuation system, former prime minister and treasurer Paul Keating, is said to be furious about current Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ plans to tax unrealised gains within superannuation for balances above $3 million. Back in the early 1990s, Keating and union leader Bill Kelty joined forces to implement |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 11:00
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Deloitte Access Economics has released its Quarterly Employment Forecasts Report, which paints the picture of a job market propped up by record government spending. Deloitte notes that almost 390,000 Australians found jobs in the past year, with around two-thirds being full-time, “highlighting the labour market’s resilience”. However, “the overall strength of the labour market has The post Australia’s boom in unproductive jobs appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 10:30
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Chinese steel futures buckled yesterday, both long and flat. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to let this happened when you have already mooted the solution of passing the price weakness upstream to iron ore via steel output put cuts. Chinese growth prospects are hardly shotting the lights out, either. Morgan Stanley. Milder growth The post Steel buckles, iron ore next appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 10:00
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I keep arguing that Australia’s transition to renewable energy will be incredibly expensive and drive up power bills. The reasons are straightforward. Renewable energy sources depend on weather conditions, which makes them intermittent and results in low load factors. As a result, renewables require backup hydrocarbon generation and loads of storage. They also need a lot |
Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 09:50
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The Tally Room
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 09:30
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The vote count is now getting to a point where pretty much all primary votes have been counted, even if we don’t have all of the preference counts yet. So that means we can now begin to analyse the informal voting trends – where it went up or down, and what some of the causes could be. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 09:30
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It is clear that the world wants to sell DXY. The problem is, there’s nothing else to buy. EUR might be it but its on the end of a tariff bashing. AUD follows EUR. Lead boots are growing wings. Gold, gold, gold! Metals picking up some DXY tailwind. Not miners. EM meh. Junk meh. Yields The post Australian dollar an absolute mess appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 09:00
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With Wall Street closed for the long weekend, most risk markets reacted positively to the 180 degree spinning top EU tariffs by the Trump regime, with European shares taking back their Friday night losses. Meanwhile the broader selloff in USD continued Pound Sterling making a new yearly high while Euro, Loonie and Yen all consolidated The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 08:00
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The latest data from the Department of Home Affairs shows a record 2,541,651 temporary visas on issue in Australia (excluding tourists) in Q1 2025. This figure was almost 120,000 more than the previous year and approximately 580,000 higher than Q1 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since Q1 2019, the increase in temporary visas has been The post Australia inundated with bogus asylum seeker claims appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 27, 2025 - 00:10
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The NSW and Victorian governments are pushing hard to liberalise planning and encourage the rapid construction of high-rise towers within inner and middle-ring suburbs. Last year, the NSW Productivity and Equality Commission recommended bigger towers, smaller apartments, less storage and natural light, smaller balconies, and fewer parking places as solutions to the state’s housing crisis. The post Australia’s slum city future appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 19:27
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The Tally Room
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 16:38
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Monday 4:38pm – As everyone had called, the Liberal Party has lost their third seat in South Australia’s to Labor’s Charlotte Walker. That is a 4-2 split. It’s worth remembering that traditionally these 4-2 splits are rare. Prior to 2025, Labor had gained two 4-2 splits (with the Democrats the fourth “left” senator) in NSW in 1990 and 1998, two in Tasmania in 2007 and 2010, and one in Western Australia in 2022. South Australia was the most certain for 2025, but 4-2 splits also remain possible in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, with the possibility of a 4-1-1 split in Tasmania also possible. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 16:30
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Risk markets in Asia were mixed to start with on the Trump regime EU tariff bomb from the weekend gap but then the inevitable 180 spin got stocks at least somewhat back on track while currency markets continue to selloff the USD, believing the facts behind the demented spin. The Australian dollar is now at The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 15:12
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 15:08
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 15:04
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 14:52
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 14:48
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 14:00
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Mega City One, otherwise know as Hellbourne, is Australia number one example of what a bad economy model does to living standards. Since when did Aussie cities deal with this? The Victorian Labor government will introduce an interim ban on machete sales across the state following a violent brawl involving 10 people at Melbourne’s Northland The post Hellbourne the new Mega City One appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 13:32
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 13:30
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Australia’s superannuation system is too costly and inequitable. The Australian Treasury estimated total superannuation tax expenditures at around $60 billion in 2024–25, with contribution concessions being the most expensive at $37 billion, growing to $36,750 billion by 2027–28. Most of these concessions go to high-income earners, as illustrated below. In 2021-22, 91% of the benefit The post A better superannuation solution appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 13:14
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 13:00
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Property market softened in April: The latest batch of property market data show some weakening in both price and activity. The official NBS 70-city average new home prices declined by about 2% mom annualized in April, with prices in lower-tier cities falling more. The Centaline existing home price indices for top-tier cities posted renewed declines The post Chinese property is the bust without end appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 12:30
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At the end of 2024, Australia’s mortgage affordability was the worst on record, with households required to sacrifice a record share of their incomes to repay the median-sized new mortgage. There was also a record gap between the median home price and borrowers’ capacity to pay, assuming traditional affordability metrics. So far this year, the The post Return of the housing Hunger Games appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 26, 2025 - 12:00
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Steel in pancaked an iron ore hoping. Channel checks are showing that damage is creeping up the supply chain but it’s not disastrous. Goldman. Feedback from producers as of mid-May suggests end-user orderbooks were flat MoM, softer than past seasonality. Infrastructure recovery paused, reflected in lack of funding for new project starts and weak cement The post Iron ore dances to the tariff music appeared first on MacroBusiness. |