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Oz Blog News Commentary
MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Chinese property is still stuffed. Therefore, so too is Chinese consumer confidence. Those arguing China will become a consumer economy are delusional. It’s all the same thing. They throw money into local government sinkholes. They build stuff they don’t need. They trade as much as possible. And they cheat when someone tries to change it.

The post Chinese yawnulus same old, same old appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Monday, June 2, 2025 - 12:00 Source

We are still waiting for the final 2PP figures – they’ve finished in 149 seats and have even started the 2PP count in Bradfield now – but we now have basically all of the two-candidate-preferred figures in. We may not know the final Bradfield outcome, but for the purposes of today’s post it is close enough.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The Albanese government is captured and is gutless: A gas reservation scheme that is implemented only on a prospective basis would do little to solve Australia’s east coast gas shortage, experts warn. Energy minister Chris Bowen on Sunday ruled out retrospective reservation of gas but left the door open to prospective changes to “see what

The post Albo has not piked it on gas reservation…yet appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The latest data from the Department of Education shows that there were a record 1,095,298 international students enrolled in Australia at the end of 2024, an annual increase of 13%. There were also a record 571,986 new enrolments at the end of 2024. Julie Hare from The AFR reports that university tuition fees from international

The post Australia becomes dumping ground for international students appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Steel prices keep falling. Is it any wonder? Flat steel is…flat… Long is still sinking with the property Titanic. Output is crap again. 2025 is shaping as another 2-3% downward shift in China steel output, unless authorities push it to 5%, which they should!

The post Iron ore hangs on as steel plunges appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 10:30 Source

CBA senior economist Stephen Wu created the following chart showing the divergence between various population measures: According to Wu: Next week’s National Accounts release (4/6) will contain an updated estimate of population growth, which is driven by net overseas migration (NOM). The already-released retail trade data show estimates of population growth will be downwardly revised

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Market Ear with a May cleanup. Marvelous May We just completed the single best month of May for stocks in the last 35 years. As we have highlighted over and over again during the past few weeks, sentiment and positioning have been very light, which of course has helped the rally. However, now the

The post Feasting on the Trump TACO appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, June 2, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Pontoon bridges are just linear open-sided waterbeds.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:49 Source

Over the weekend, a reader hit me up with one of the best questions I’ve been asked about the Cruel Stars trilogy. They wanted to know why I don’t spend much time describing what the characters look like. Why don’t I tell you whether Lucinda Hardy has red hair or how tall Sephina L’Trel is? Why leave McLennan’s face to the imagination?

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Westpac is reading the economy right as examines Q1 GDP. Domestic demand is expected to have slowed, lifting only 0.3%qtr in Q1. As growth in new public demand moderates, private demand remains patchy and at this stage, unable to pick up the slack left by the public sector. The impacts of the natural disasters which

The post RBA should have cut 50bps appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:03 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Friday night was a mixed one for risk markets and will be compounded again with a lot of weekend news, let alone the big strike on Russia by the Ukrainians, but also Chinese PMI prints and what looks like another round of tariffs from the Trump regime coupled with a lot of whining about China.

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 08:27 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 2, 2025 - 08:06 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 08:00 Source

This week’s Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to reveal that per capita GDP declined, effectively pushing Australians back into recession after the reprieve in Q4 2024. The weak result will likely be driven by household consumption, which continues to disappoint despite the Stage 3 tax cuts and falling

The post The great retail recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 2, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The Albanese government’s fantastical target to build 1.2 million homes over five years is centred on delivering a boom in high-rise towers. However, the April dwelling approvals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that high-density approvals have collapsed. Overall dwelling approvals fell by 5.7% in April in seasonally adjusted terms, which followed

The post Australia’s hidden high-rise housing crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, June 1, 2025 - 11:08 Source

This weekend saw 2,962 auctions held across the capital cities, the highest volume since the week before Easter and the second-highest volume of auctions so far this year. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported a preliminary auction clearance rate of 70.0%, down slightly from 71.3% last week, which was revised to a final clearance rate of 65.1%

The post Property vendors and buyers cash in on rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, June 1, 2025 - 08:13 Source

DXY and EUR both look like they are consolidating for more. AUD at bottom of rising channel. Brent will crash Monday after OPEC lifted output again. The child president is making everyone except the US “drill, baby, drill”. Metals no bueno. Miners yuk. EM meh. Junk all good. Yields helping. Stocks on hold. Is the

The post Is the Australian dollar still going to 50 cents? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, June 1, 2025 - 00:05 Source

By Stephen Wu, senior economist at CBA. Headline inflation in April was unchanged at 2.4%/yr, with the annual trimmed mean measure nudging up to 2.8%. Retail trade data surprised on the downside, with warmer weather and price rises playing a role. The week ahead brings Q1 25 GDP, where we expect the annual rate to

The post The economic week ahead appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Yesterday’s final result in New South Wales was a bit of a surprise, with One Nation closing a primary vote margin of 0.21 quotas. Even after One Nation won another senator in Western Australia on Thursday afternoon, the gain they had made in WA wouldn’t have been another to do the same in NSW.

Antony Green previously produced a table showing how the switch from group voting tickets had meant that nearly all Senate elections resulted in the candidate leading on the primary vote ended up winning. I’ve now extended this table to show the 2025 results.

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New Politics Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 08:00 Source

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 07:28 Source

Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) has published its daily dwelling value index for 31 May, which covers Australia’s five major city housing markets. Dwelling values rose by 0.5% in May at the aggregate 5-city level, with all major markets recording solid increases: Over the May quarter, dwelling values rose by 1.2%, with Brisbane (1.6%) leading the way,

The post Australian housing poised for new price boom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 00:15 Source

The Albanese government’s National Housing Accord commenced on 1 July 2024 and requires the construction of 1.2 million homes over five years, which equates to 20,000 homes per month and 240,000 homes a year. As illustrated in the next chart, the 240,000 annual housing target is beyond anything Australia has ever achieved before and way

The post Labor’s housing target crumbles into dust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 31, 2025 - 00:05 Source

International Reading: Elon Musk wants to rollout robotaxi in Austin in two weeks – Fortune America has a billionaire problem — we need a wealth tax to fix it – The Hill The Republican budget is an attack on the American economy – Public Notice Tariffs, and Trump’s entire economic agenda, were just thrown into

The post Weekend reading and media appearances appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Friday, May 30, 2025 - 16:39 Source

It’s miserable here. The weekend is upon us, and it's cold, bleak, and rainy where I am. So, I’m sending you a weekend read. A chapter from For Her Eyes Only, in which my kickass heroine, well, kicks some. I hope it amuses you as much as it did me when I wrote it.

If you are an Amazon atheist, I’ve now got the pre-order ready to go everywhere online, which is why you’re getting this extra mail out.

All three books are available for pre-order here.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 16:00 Source

The TACO in Chief is again threatening more tariffs on the EU just 24 hours after a yeah-nah decision by US courts to remove then reinstate the global tariffs, which of course is translating into a lot of hesitation on risk markets. This comes just after clear signs that a US recession is underway while

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:53 Source
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Club Troppo Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:45 Source

I try to replicate my more substantial posts on Substack here, but forgot this from a few weeks ago. So I’m now making amends.

When it comes to Magna Carta clause 39 is the one hanging in the foyer.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:10 Source

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 30, 2025 - 14:00 Source

This week, I was interviewed by Andrew Bolt from Sky News on the latest housing forecasts from the federal government’s advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC). Edited transcript Andrew Bolt: The government’s National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC) has put out its annual report, the State of the Housing System,

The post Australia’s housing scandal exposed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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