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MacroBusiness Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Since COVID, it has been clear that stock market cycles have dramatically accelerated (in truth before that as liquidity drives speed).  Each twitch in the underlying global economy is traded on high-octane moves that exaggerate minor moves in the underlying economy.  Right now, we have a broadening global stock cycle on the thesis that global

The post Fast forward stock cycle intensifies appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Unfortunately, KM3NeT led to the discovery of the Pauli anglerfish, which emits Cherenkov radiation to prey on neutrino researchers.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 10:30 Source

If Labor loses the upcoming federal election, it will be due to two key issues: the cost of living and housing affordability. The latest True Issues survey from JWS Research shows that the cost of living (58%) and housing supply and affordability (30%) were the two issues voters wanted the federal government to focus on.

The post Voters punish Labor for cost of living, unaffordable housing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 10:29 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 10:26 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The rotting fishhead AFR launched a stingingly politicised campaign to prevent monetary easing, and its journos and hangers-on were all wrong. Unsurprisingly. If all you can see is politics, then you’re so busy gaslighting everybody that you have no idea what is going on fundamentally. Enter Michael Stutchbury, the Rotten Fishhead himself, where the stench

The post Egg all over RBA dills appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 09:55 Source

The federal corruption watchdog will investigate six people responsible for the former government’s illegal debt collection scheme, backflipping on a previous decision.

Following a review process, the National Anti-Corruption Commission revealed on Tuesday it will probe whether any of the six officials referred in the robodebt royal commission’s final report engaged in corrupt conduct.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is back on strong second-tier data. AUD puked the RBA. Lead boots sinking once more. Gold is in a crazy blowoff. Copper popper. Miners yawn. EM Deepsuckered. Junk maybe. Yields up. Stocks firm. Pretty boring action. The AUD is not listening to the relentlessly stupid RBA hawks. Why would it be when their forecasting

The post Australian dollar pukes on RBA appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street returned from its long weekend of anti-Trump protests and more aircraft crashes with a very staid session, unable to push to a new record high while over in Europeland, the German DAX made a new record high amid the push for big increases in defence spending. The USD is slowly coming back against

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 08:15 Source

WHEN SOMEONE SAYS THAT THEY DON'T SUFFER FROM "TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME", IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT THEY DO AS THEY EXPLAIN IN DETAIL WHY THEY DON'T, BUT DO... YES, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE CHOSE A CONVICTED FELON, A SELF-CONFESSED SEX PREDATOR, A RACIST, A NARCISSIST, A PROTECTIONIST, AND SOMEONE WHO DISPLAYS CONTEMPT FOR THE AMERICAN CONSTITUTION...

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Renew Economy Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 07:46 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 07:35 Source
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Your Democracy Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 04:53 Source

It is already certain that the high-level Russian-American meeting in the Saudi capital Riyadh will have a place in the history books.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 00:10 Source

The Productivity Commission (PC) released a research paper entitled Housing Construction Productivity: Can we Fix it?, which tells a story of decades of poor performance. The PC found that building times for new homes have risen significantly in the last decade, and less than half (-53%) as many homes are being built per hour worked

The post Why Australia’s stinks at building homes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, February 19, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The profoundly corrupt and stupid interest rate complex was as wrong, wrong, wrong as the RBA cut. Now, it is readying more WRONG. The RBA said Australia’s strong labour market was a “strong argument” for keeping rates on hold. That’s after the central bank cut rates for the first time since 2020. “One of the

The post Buy more rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 20:30 Source

This is the first of two commentaries examining what the writer reads as President Trump’s unfolding offensive against the institutions and agencies comprising the deep state — or, if you prefer, the administrative state or the permanent state or the invisible government. The second in this series will follow shortly.

 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 18:36 Source

 

Top Russian and US diplomats are holding talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to find a way to restore diplomatic relations, set the stage for a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, and pave the way for resolving the Ukraine conflict.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 17:30 Source

The trading week continues in a mixed mood for most Asian share markets without a solid from Wall Street enjoying a long weekend. All eyes were on the RBA today which finally cut rates after four years although the messaging does seem somewhat mixed with the Australian dollar barely changed to remain slightly above the

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 15:43 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 15:26 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 14:37 Source

As widely anticipated by the financial market and economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. It was the first cut since the RBA commenced its monetary tightening cycle in May 2022 and took the OCR down to 4.10%. The decision could be

The post RBA cuts rates by 0.25% appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 14:00 Source

New Zealand’s housing bubble has burst after recording one of the world’s largest house price increases during the pandemic. According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, real inflation-adjusted national home values have collapsed to their pre-pandemic level. CoreLogic has also recorded a 17.5% decline in national values from their post-pandemic peak, led by Wellington

The post New Zealand’s housing bubble has burst appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 13:42 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 13:38 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Deputy Opposition leader Sussan Ley claims the number of small businesses that employ people in Australia has fallen from around 953,000 to 922,000 since Labor won the federal election in May 2022. Ley adds that the nation appears to be experiencing a small business recession. At the same time, the federal government has hired about

The post Australia’s public sector booms as private sector busts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Peter Dutton says he would do a much better job on energy prices. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said he hoped the RBA would cut rates, but that alone would not assuage voter anger over the cost of living. “It’s the price of groceries, and it’s the price of electricity, and the price of gas. All

The post Greens much cheaper on energy than Albo and Dutton appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 12:30 Source

One key measure political parties use to gauge the public’s appetite for change is voter sentiment about whether the nation is headed in the right direction. New RedBridge and Accent Research polling spells bad news for the Albanese Labor government, with 55% of voters in 20 key marginal seats believing the nation is “generally headed in

The post Most Australians believe nation is headed in wrong direction appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Roy Morgan’s alternative and unadjusted unemployment number hit an eighteen-month high in January. In January 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 78,000 to 1,620,000 (up 0.4% to 10.1% of the workforce) with more people looking for both part-time and full-time work. The Australian workforce increased by 297,000 to a record high of 16,115,000 in January with

The post Unemployment jumps ahead of RBA meeting appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Markets never do geopolitics well. That is, they ignore it until shocked. Not this time.  The Market Ear has more. Stock market trading peace The Ukraine ceasefire basket is going vertical. Equity traders are optimistic that there will be peace. Source: GS No quick ending Polymarket odds that Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90

The post Are markets right about Ukraine peace? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Statistics New Zealand has released net migration data for December, which showed that annual net permanent and long-term (PLT) migration inflows fell to 27,000, the lowest level since December 2022 and well below 135,600 in October 2023. Annual arrivals continued to slow and annual departures hit record highs. The annual net PLT inflow of non-NZ

The post Unemployed kiwis escape to Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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