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Oz Blog News Commentary
MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 10:30 Source

You’ve just got to love China. Nothing that matters stays broken for long. January credit data is out, coming in strong at RMB 7060bn in January, vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 6500bn. Amusingly, the money supply data that has been telling the truth about how bad the Chinese economy is has been fixed! M1 to the

The post Xi decrees crashing China credit fixed! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Monday, February 17, 2025 - 10:10 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Last week, ABC’s 7.30 report aired a special on Australia’s housing crisis, which was put together by Alan Kohler. The segment blamed Australia’s housing crisis on a lack of housing supply and tax concessions like negative gearing. The segment also featured renowned pro-mass immigration shills and YIMBYs, the Centre for Independent Studies’ Peter Tulip and

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Prosper Australia Monday, February 17, 2025 - 09:54 Source

What could $27 billion fund if Commonwealth-state transfers were adjusted to bring revenue and expenses for each level of government closer to balance?

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The Tally Room Monday, February 17, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Today I’m announcing some work that was mostly finished at the end of last year but was put on hold until the new year, but is now finished.

I have now added a number of new datasets to my data repository covering elections held in the second half of 2024. These are:

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 09:30 Source

All hail King Trump! While Australia is busy destroying itself via the evil East Coast gas cartel, King Trump is working on a plan to save us. The possibility of an end to the war in Ukraine is, of course, a positive development but all indications are that the outcome will reward Russia’s leader Vladimir

The post King Trump may save energy superidiot appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Prosper Australia Monday, February 17, 2025 - 09:05 Source

Over the past century and a half, politics and economics have evolved significantly in how we manage society. Yet, the core principle remains: every person born on this earth has a right to a share of its bounty.

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Prosper Australia Monday, February 17, 2025 - 09:00 Source

The relationship between older, younger, and future Australians and our tax and spending priorities is based on an implicit generational bargain. Working age taxpayers support older and younger Australians and can expect the next generation to support them in the same way, and economic and social development will enable each successive generation to enjoy rising living standards. At the very least, we should not leave the next generation worse off.

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 09:00 Source

While Wall Street nominally almost made a record close on Friday night it was a very weak finish that reflected a missed retail sales print that showed spending has slowed in the first month of the year. Other risk markets also pulled back and combined with a flurry of central bank meetings this week, trading

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 08:23 Source

Dugald river solar farm

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Renew Economy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 08:23 Source

Dugald river solar farm

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Your Democracy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 08:21 Source

“Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future, too.” Marcus Aurelius

If you have made even a cursory study of empires of the past, there are a number of signs of the flaws of those empires that are reasonably common, generally when they are in decline, but not always.

 

Caligula’s horse and Washington    By Les MacDonald

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The Market Ear leads us off. Too much bearishness The AAII bull-bear spread has puked aggressively. Prior instances when the spread collapsed like this led to the SPX squeezing higher. Refinitiv The chase for Europe Largest inflow to Europe in over 2 years. Suckers getting sucked in… BofA They are not early After 8 straight

The post The bull market rolls on appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 07:23 Source

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Your Democracy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 06:34 Source

"Come to the edge, he said. They said: We are afraid. Come to the edge, he said. They came. He pushed them and they flew." 

           Guillaume Apollinaire

 

WE ARE PREPARED TO BELIEVE ANYTHING. WE ARE MOSTLY CONDITIONED TO BELIEVE ANYTHING. 

SHOULD WE ASK QUESTIONS ABOUT THE HUMAN CONDITION, WE ALWAYS END UP IN THE IMPASSE OF THE CREATION OF THE UNIVERSE. 

WE INVENT GOD. SOLVED. 

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 00:12 Source

The rotten fish head is back, trying to poison the interest rate pond with politicised garbage. John Kehoe is the stinker today. The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia board on Tuesday is the most eagerly awaited monetary policy call in many years – both for home borrowers and politicians on the eve of

The post RBA needs to cut, cut, cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Last week, Labor Treasurer Jim Dutton announced that Australia’s financial regulators would be required to loosen home lending rules for millions of Australians with student loans. Under the changes, a borrower’s education debt will be removed from mortgage serviceability assessments if the bank believes the borrower will pay it off in the “near term”. Compare

The post A Coalition government would rocket house prices appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 20:44 Source

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K30vixF8cBw

Scott Ritter: Trump Is PLAYING A Different Game (Interview)

 

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Renew Economy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 17:43 Source
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The Tally Room Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 17:37 Source

British polling company YouGov published their first MRP report for the 2025 election cycle, becoming the second company to publish an MRP during this election cycle. For this post I wanted to run a comparison of the two most recent MRPs from two different companies. The two polls produced similar top-level figures, both in terms of seats and votes, but at the individual seat level there are some pretty significant differences.

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Renew Economy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 16:20 Source
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Your Democracy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 12:42 Source

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged European members of the bloc to stop complaining about getting sidelined in peace talks and discussions on Ukraine’s future, and to take action instead.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) on Saturday, Rutte emphasized the need for actionable ideas, including on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the bloc’s effort to ramp up its defense spending.

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Your Democracy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 11:59 Source

Musk took to his social media platform, X, on Sunday, reposting a video of synchronized drone swarms in elaborate formations and adding, “Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35.”

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MacroBusiness Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 11:54 Source

Financial markets and most economists believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower the official cash rate by 0.25% on Tuesday, followed by three additional cuts this year. The latest Westpac monthly consumer confidence survey noted that “consumers have become much more confident about the prospect of interest rate cuts”. As a result, “house

The post Auction market bounces ahead of rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 11:05 Source

DXY is breaking down as EUR rises on a peace premium. Premature is what FX does best! AUD to the moon! The AUD short has been squeezed a little. Not enough. Auld lead boots helping out. Gold is shellacked. This is a positioning unwind but also a fear of an outbreak of peace. Imagine if

The post Australian dollar cheers European peace appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 07:44 Source

Employee unions are challenging the Trump administration’s moves to fire vast swaths of the federal workforce, saying they violate regulations for carrying out mass “RIFs” across government.

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Your Democracy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 06:58 Source

Blessed are you who are poor, for yours in the kingdom of God.Blessed are you who are hungry now, for you will be filledBlessed are you who weep now for you will laugh …….But woe to you who are rich for you have received your consolationWoe to you who are full now for you will be hungryWow to you who are laughing now for you will mourn and weepFrom the sermon on the Plain – Luke 6: 20 – 25Gospel for Epiphany 6 16 February

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Your Democracy Sunday, February 16, 2025 - 06:21 Source

Silence falls, and the tension in the room is almost palpable as US Vice President JD Vance walks to the podium at the Munich Security Conference. Just 48 hours earlier, the world had felt like a different place.

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Your Democracy Saturday, February 15, 2025 - 19:16 Source

After Kennedy's confirmation, Trump establishes 'Make America Healthy Again' commissionPublic health experts remain alarmed about Kennedy’s rise from a fringe figure in the alternative health world to one of the most senior and influential positions in U.S. health care.

By Aria Bendix

 

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Your Democracy Saturday, February 15, 2025 - 16:02 Source

Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham showered praise on Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky at this year’s annual Munich Security Conference, declaring him to be the ally he had always dreamed of and lauding that the fight with Russia had not cost American lives.

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