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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 10:57 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 10:45 Source

The presentation criticizes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for insisting on Ukraine's direct involvement in peace negotiations with Russia and the U.S. regarding the war. It argues that Zelensky lacks the leverage to demand a seat at the table and portrays him as an irrational actor with a history of poor military and diplomatic decisions.

 

Zelensky's HARD (dicky) STAND...

 

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Policymakers want to force Australians to live in high-rise apartment towers, assuming it will improve affordability. Their assumption is incorrect, as data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that building a shoebox apartment is more expensive than building a detached house. Michael Matusik’s chart highlights the problem. “Whilst all building costs have risen

The post Australians face bleak housing future appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Aussie terms of trade shellacking is taking a breather, but the trend is intact and will get much worse. The last Commodity Price Index from the RBA was enjoying a dead cat bounce. But the two coals have continued their collapse. Metallic coal is grinding lower. My target price in 25/26 is $100. It

The post Coal crash intensifies appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY took a breather. AUD is poised for more. Plenty of room in the Chinese jaws. Oil and gold firm. Copper bubblet bursts. Yawn. Miners stuffed. EM deepsucking. Junk breaking out? Yields down. Stocks up. I can’t remember an RBA pile-on of such intensity. Both hawks and bulls are so politicised that the central bank

The post Australian dollar joins RBA pile on appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 09:19 Source

It’s always the same at this stage of the cycle, only this time it is secular, not cyclical. BHP’s dividend payout has hit its lowest point since 2017 after the mining giant missed market expectations on underlying earnings as well as profit. BHP reported first-half revenue of $US25.2bn, down 8 per cent on the prior

The post BHP dividend smash secular not cyclical appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Amid a lot of macro chaos, stock markets continue to make new highs with the German DAX pushing European bourses higher while a closed Wall Street almost made a record close on Friday night despite a poor retail sales print and crashing export volumes to Canada. The USD continues to give up ground against most

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 08:30 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 06:55 Source

In Australia at the federal level of government, we have some of the shortest election cycles in the world: often barely three years. This mitigates against even medium-term planning. A new government takes a year to learn the ropes of office, another year to govern before preparing for re-election in the third. And even if a government survives that long, the odds are its leader won’t.

 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 06:30 Source

Key European leaders arrived Monday at the Élysée Palace in Paris for an emergency summit called by French President Emmanuel Macron to agree on a coordinated response to a shock policy shift on the Ukraine war by the new US President Donald Trump. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were among the heads of state greeted by Macron, who had a phone call with Trump just before the summit. Follow our liveblog for all the latest developments.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 05:45 Source

Has Vladimir Putin ever had a better few days in Washington? Donald Trump, just four weeks into his second term, has executed a breathtaking pivot toward Moscow, reversing course after years of ruptured relations between the U.S. and Russia that resulted from Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 18, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The pump-priming of Australia’s housing market is in full swing. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers has already announced that he has instructed Australia’s financial regulators to relax home lending regulations for millions of Australians with home loans. Under the changes, a borrower’s student debt will be excluded from mortgage serviceability calculations if the bank feels the

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 17:30 Source

An uneasy start to the trading week as most Asian share markets pull back after a mixed return on Wall Street from Friday night due to the weaker than expected retail sales print. This is likely to continue as its a long weekend for US markets. The USD is still under the pump with most

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 16:11 Source

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has announced that the UK is ready to play a “leading role” in providing security guarantees to Kiev and deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission, should a ceasefire agreement with Russia be reached.

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Renew Economy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 15:17 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 15:12 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 15:11 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 14:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 14:00 Source

In August 2024, the Actuaries Institute reported that rising home insurance premiums were causing financial stress for 1.6 million Australian households. This represented a 360,000-household increase, or 30% more than the previous year. According to Sharanjit Paddam, the principal author of the Actuaries Institute research, insurance premiums were rising faster than incomes, with the median

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 13:30 Source

So much for the Cat5 monster. Cyclone Nothingburger passed the Pilbara by without leaving any damage. RIO has already re-committed to existing output guidance which means that a weak Q1 will be followed by booming Q2 and Q3. Prices fell over the weekend and have some catching down to steel to do. Vale also indicated

The post Cyclone Nothingburger passes Pilbara by appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The writing was on the wall for Albo in his first week. While Australian energy markets were melting down on Ukraine War profiteering by the gas cartel, Albo was busy talking up how he would aim for a two-term government. Any PM who is so focused on re-election as his top priority has no interest

The post Albo does not deserve a second term appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The latest YouGov poll suggests the Dutton-led Coalition will most likely win the upcoming federal election and form the next government. YouGov’s latest MRP model suggests the Coalition would likely win around 73 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, with a lower estimate of 65 and an upper estimate of 80, if a federal election

The post Will RBA turn the election tide for Labor? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Only ten years late. The Albanese government will launch a crackdown on housing purchases by foreign buyers, implementing a two-year ban on the purchase of established homes by temporary residents to replicate a previous commitment by the Coalition. …Simultaneously, the Albanese government will also conduct a review into the ban’s effectiveness to determine whether it

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Last week, SQM Research released its January vacancy report, revealing that the national vacancy rate declined to just 1.0%, down 0.1% from January 2024. Commenting on the results, SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher noted that the rental crisis appears to have reignited, potentially driven by a resurgence of net overseas migration. “The sharp decrease

The post Imported demand squeezes rental market appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 11:17 Source

 

TEXT TO COME...

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 11:00 Source

According to the Department of Education, a record 1,018,799 international students were enrolled in Australia in the year to September 2024: The table below displays the breakdown of enrolments by type of institution. As you can see, vocational education and training (VET) has experienced the greatest increase in student numbers since 2019, rising from 247,467

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xkcd.com Monday, February 17, 2025 - 11:00 Source

They just want researchers in the enclosure to feel enriched and stimulated. ('The Enclosure' is what archivists call the shadowy world outside their archives in which so many people are trapped.)

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Renew Economy Monday, February 17, 2025 - 10:42 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, February 17, 2025 - 10:30 Source

You’ve just got to love China. Nothing that matters stays broken for long. January credit data is out, coming in strong at RMB 7060bn in January, vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 6500bn. Amusingly, the money supply data that has been telling the truth about how bad the Chinese economy is has been fixed! M1 to the

The post Xi decrees crashing China credit fixed! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Monday, February 17, 2025 - 10:10 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.

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