DXY is back. EUR splat. AUD follows EUR. Lead boots stuck. Bretton Woods II firming hit gold. Metals did better. Big mining=big bear. EM yawn. Junk cancels recession. Curve flattened. Stocks to the moon. It’s not hard to see why the child president is in a panicked reversal. Check out these internal from the Richmond
As the Trump regime folds faster than a dodgy poor chair on its tariff tirade against China, risk sentiment is bouncing back across most but not all markets with US and European stocks surging overnight while the USD firmed against the undollars. However, bond markets remain in flux with the 10 year Treasury yield almost
On every metric, Australian housing is unaffordable. At the end of 2024, the national dwelling price-to-income ratio was 8.0, up from a 20-year average of 6.7 and nearly double the level of the early 2000s. The number of years taken for a median-income household to save a deposit on a median-priced home was 10.6, up
In surprise to no one, the Trump regime has wavered first as it signals “very nice” but probably non-existent trade talks with China and nullifies suggestions that Fed Chair Powell’s head is on the chopping block. This has seen extended rallies across stocks while the USD has firmed against most undollars although the Australian dollar
The Dutton-led Coalition is staring down a massive election defeat, with the latest polling from Roy Morgan showing Labor’s two-party preferred vote widening to 55.5% (up 1%) against the Coalition’s 44.5%. The following chart plots recent polling from various sources and shows Labor’s lead widening as the election date approaches. Primary support for Labor also
They say that the fish rots from the head and never was a truer word spoken about the festering Australian Financial Review. Its rotten fishhead, Michael Stutchbury, today bewails the lies of politics by, you guessed it, lying. As Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy says, it was Liberal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg who agreed to pump up overall
The Trump Administration is the best thing that has happened to the incumbent Liberal government of Canada. Polling conducted in early January suggested that the Liberal Party could win as few as 21 seats in the 338-seat parliament at this year’s election. Canadians had endured a decade-long decline in their living standards. Per capita GDP
In June 2024, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver posted the following chart showing that Australia’s housing shortage was about to surpass 200,000 dwellings: Oliver explained via Twitter (X) that “underlying demographic demand (driven by strong population growth) continues to run well ahead of new housing supply (constrained by capacity and cost issues, etc.), and is
Time for more yawnzooka as Chinese property falls into a tariff hole. Yawnulus fading. Sales too. Inventory still drawing. As completions keep falling. Not much good here. More yawnulus incoming. And it had better hurry. Morgan Stanley. Our Asia Research team’s latest AlphaWise survey of ~2,000 consumers in China (conducted April 8-11, immediately after the
It is the unsinkable metal ore despite falling steel prices. Recent GDP data was OK but what’s coming isn’t. Goldman. Despite a sequential deceleration from last Q4, year-over-year real GDP growth came in at 5.4% in Q1, higher than consensus expectations. With exports jumping 12.4% yoy, industrial production climbing 7.7% yoy, and retail sales rising