The Australian Treasury’s propaganda modelling, released ahead of the introduction of the Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers, forecast that the policy would only lift home values by a cumulative 0.6% over a six-year period. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil used Treasury’s modelling to deflect allegations that the policy
Viktor Schvets’ Convergence of Storms is not a good outlook for Australia. Schvets’ “Convergence of Storms” sees five converging revolutions. The first storm is demographics: ageing populations, below-replacement fertility, and shrinking workforces reduce long-term growth potential, raise dependency ratios, and put enormous strain on pension systems and public finances. With fewer workers supporting more retirees,
The Coalition has one more round of bloodletting before it can try to compete. Andrew Hastie has emerged as the most popular preferred Opposition Leader behind Sussan Ley, as the Coalition’s primary vote remains stuck at record low levels, despite the Liberals and Nationals dumping net zero and promising tougher migration policies. A Newspoll published on the eve
The outlook Australians hold for the future has been deeply sub-par for a long while now, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index sitting dramatically below the post-1990 level and roughly where it was during the Global Financial Crisis. While elements of the index have undergone a recovery, the forward-looking subindexes remain in deeply concerning
The Market Ear with the update. Sellers spent? Here’s a curated collection of the best charts and trading-desk stats from overnight. Across hedge funds, CTAs, and long-onlies, positioning data suggests that most of the selling pressure may already be behind us. Beautiful bounce S&P 500 with a beautiful bounce off the 100-day moving average just
The poor economics of green hydrogen have led to widespread project cancellations across Australia and globally, including in China. According to the Australian Financial Review, “more than 130 projects linked to hydrogen have received federal taxpayer money going back to 2017, according to the government’s grants register. While many pre-date this government, easily the largest came
The policy process in Canberra is broken. The government of the day refuses to budge on any national interest reform that threatens vested interests. As the polity grows increasingly agitated due to this inaction, the vested interests realise that their social license to operate is under attack. Over time, it is a risk they cannot
On Wednesday this week, the ABS will finally release a full monthly CPI series that will ultimately replace the quarterly measure. Nowcasting measures suggest inflation is already falling back from the recent energy shock. As we know, the RBA pause has kicked the consumer in the teeth. And other measures are also weakening. Energy has
Wall Street rebounded again on Friday night on renewed hope that the December rate cut maybe in play all due to the comments of Fed NY Chair Williams. This is going to probably lead to a significant lift on Asian share markets this morning, with SPI futures up at least 1% plus increased chances of
The rorting of Australia’s immigration system seems never-ending. In addition to the widespread rorting of the student and working holiday maker program and the blowout in asylum seeker claims and bridging visas, Australia’s partner visa program is also being ruthlessly rorted. In 2018, Dr Bob Birrell from the Australian Population Research Institute and former immigration