The Market Ear with more. MEGA Coming into Tariff Monday, Europe was experiencing its second-best start to the year and SXXP hit an ATH – of course, skeptics will highlight that this is against a low bar, and the outperformance is mostly valuation-driven (as opposed to earnings-inspired). However, 21 of 25 EU sectors have outperformed
There are two key reasons why the federal government loves running a high immigration program. First, immigration stimulates the aggregate economy, as measured by GDP. Running a high immigration policy allows the government to claim that it is an effective economic manager, even when per capita GDP growth is negative (as it is right now)
There’s no reason to stop it. Inflation is tumbling. Inflation expectations re-anchored. Wage growth is smashed. The recent consumer bounce is fragile and related to lifting expectations of easing. It is also still meaningfully below the RBA forecast. Goldman has more. We also upgrade our tracking estimate for GDP growth in 4Q2024 by 10bps to
You know an election is coming up when Labor-leaning economist Stephen Koukoulas (‘The Kouk’) writes a propaganda piece in the Labor-leaning Independent Australia, claiming, “The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world”. Kouk claims, “The economy is kicking off 2025 in a fabulous spot structurally, even though the cyclical impact of high interest
It is happening in real-time in front of our faces. Emergency alerts about a shortage of electricity reserves hit an all-time record for a last quarter of the year in 2024, new data has revealed, as NSW’s two largest coal power stations suffered a spate of debilitating faults. The Australian Energy Market Operator issued 144
One has to ask why the Coalition seems to endorse the laundering of ‘dirty’ money into Australian property. Last year, the Coalition opposed legislation that included real estate agents, lawyers, and accountants in Australia’s anti-money laundering and terror financing regulatory net. These global “Tranche 2” anti-money laundering (AML) rules were first promised by the former
Yesterday I found Trump’s opening salvos in his trade wars confusing. Applying 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada for the same ostensible reason—fentanyl and illegal immigrants—made no sense given it only comes through Mexico. I theorised that the Canadian add-on was personal to Trump in light of Justin Trudeau’s poor relationship with him. Thinking it
Risk markets bounced back overnight despite the Chinese tariffs coming into effect as Wall Street rebounded alongside European bourses as the overbought USD was pushed back by all the undollars. The latest economic news from the US and solid earnings reports overshadowed the Trump Trade War with the Federal Reserve still expected to cut once
DXY reversed. AUD is printing multiple hammer candles. CNY reopens today after the LNY break. Gold is massively overbought. Dirt having another crack. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk meh. Yields meh. Stocks only go up. If the last few days are an example of Trump tariff objectives, then what has the market to be afraid
Australians have suffered their longest recession in modern history, with real per capita GDP declining for seven consecutive quarters as of Q3 2024. This decline in per capita GDP has been driven by the household sector, where consumption fell for six of the past seven quarters. This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has