6:57 – Bunbury is the kind of seat that would fall if the conservative parties were close to taking power, but the swing is falling a long way short. The first booth has a 17.7% swing away from Labor and 8.4% to the Liberals – the ABC thinks that’s a 2PP swing of 12.4%, which is far short of what they’d need to win.
6:49 – Kalgoorlie is a particularly complex seat to watch. Labor held the seat by an 11.2% margin, and are facing a challenge from Liberal, Nationals and the ex-Liberal MP as an independent. The first booth is showing a big swing against Labor but also a swing against the Liberal Party, with a wide range of conservative challengers all clustered together.
6:45 – A few other seats have very small samples of primary vote results. When the ABC applies their estimate of preference flows, they tend to be producing expected 2PP swings somewhere in the teens. Which is consistent with the conservative parties bouncing back to the numbers they had in 2017 (roughly) but a long way short of winning the election.
6:40 – The mobile polling in Morley is showing a swing in the mid-teens projected. This is consistent with a statewide result similar to 2017.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the Western Australian state election. I’ll be tracking the results tonight, so please stay tuned.