4:05 – Monique Ryan’s projected lead in Kooyong has shrunk from about 900 votes on Monday evening to just 405 today.
4:02 – In Bullwinkel, Labor’s projected lead has grown from 467 to 608 with more absent and pre-poll votes expected and very few postal votes left to count.
3:55 – Let’s look now at some of the conventional close races. In Bradfield, Liberal Gisele Kapterian leads independent Nicolette Boele by 178 votes. Almost all of the postal votes have now been counted, and I expect Boele to claw back a few votes on the absent votes. My model assumes a slight advantage to the Liberals on the declaration pre-poll, and will leave Kapterian ahead by 288 votes. Not much movement here.
3:51 – A quick note about the previous 3CP analysis I did earlier today: the AEC seems to have conducted 3CP counts for some but not all postal votes. For my models, I have treated all of the postal votes as being included in the 3CP count but this is not quite true. It’s not just we don’t know how many postal votes have been included: those different postal vote batches might be different. Something to keep an eye on.
3:08 – Some other updates from other 2CP fresh counts:
- My projected Labor 2CP in Fremantle has dropped from 51.0% to 50.9%.
- Labor’s lead in Bendigo has grown, now out to 51.5%
- I have the Labor lead in Bean projected at 50.1%.
Potentially Bendigo could be headed towards seat-calling territory, but the other two are very close.
3:05 – I’ve been reluctant to call Melbourne because it has seemed like the preference flows were very inconsistent. Adam Bandt needs about 33% of preferences to win (or at least to be even before the remaining votes are added to the count). But right now we are seeing more strong Greens booths reporting preference flows below 33%.
I can’t see Adam Bandt coming back from this. My model has dropped his projected 2CP from 47.0% last night to 46.5% now.
2:57pm – The first news we have is that apparently the seat of Grey is now apparently considered to be in play. Liberal candidate Tom Venning leads with 35% of the primary vote, followed by Labor on 22.5% and independent Anita Kuss on 18.2%. The AEC is apparently conducting a 3CP count, but it is not yet on the AEC’s 3CP results page. Apparently the SA Liberal Party is now worried about losing the seat, and according to a Tally Room donor in the Discord quite a few state Liberal MPs turned up to scrutineer today. We don’t have much more data, but one to watch.
Wednesday 2:52pm – There is so much different data flying around at the moment requiring analysis, and I am finding it hard to organise my thoughts into separate blog posts.
So from now on I’m going to be posting everything in this live blog, with the newest comments posted at the top of the guide.
Just to recap, my previous close seats analysis:
- Part 1 – Focusing on conventional close races, where the 2CP and 3CP are clear and it’s just a matter of counting remaining special votes.
- Part 2 – A brief update on conventional close races, plus a deeper analysis of seats where a fresh 2CP count is underway.
- Part 3 – Just posted a few hours ago, focusing on fresh data from seats where the top two is not clear and the AEC has been conducting three-candidate-preferred counts.
By my count at the moment there is four categories of close seats:
- Top three not clear, will require a full distribution of preferences
- Calwell
- Top two not clear, 3CP counts underway
- Flinders
- Forrest
- Monash
- Ryan
- Grey (new!)
- Fresh 2CP count underway
- Bean
- Bendigo
- Fremantle
- Melbourne (on verge of being called for Labor)
- Conventional close races
- Bradfield
- Bullwinkel
- Kooyong
- Longman
- Menzies