For the second month in a row stock markets have tumbled in the first week of the month. As such, last month’s performance is far less meaningful than current conditions. Our pitch to investors is that we want to lean into the cycle. Sell some stocks when they seem overvalued, switch into bonds, then buy
By Stephen Saunders Surely, Labor can’t just run on their dismal record. What a tissue of lies. If they keep inciting and exploiting Trump Derangement Syndrome, that might work better. Running Treasury’s line, Albanese Labor’s first-term bedtime-story is oft repeated. Caring-and-sharing Labor stands for budget repair, inflation fighting, the million jobs, growing wages, cost-of-living relief,
The ferrous complex had an unhappy day with steel prices murdered and SGX iron ore down to $94. I liquidated my iron ore shorts yesterday at a tidy profit. The latest CISA data rolled over seasonally and appears poised to drop year on year. Meanwhile, fresh from BHP reading iron ore its last rites by
The Trump administration’s tariffs and the associated stock market rout have had an immediate negative impact on Australian consumer sentiment. Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 6% to 90.1 in April, falling to a six-month low. Sentiment was 10% lower amongst those surveyed following the US tariff announcement. Perversely, consumers were less confident on the prospect
Victoria has the highest per capita state debt and the nation’s lowest (AA+) credit rating. Victoria also has the worst debt trajectory in the nation, according to ratings agency S&P Global. A new report card from the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) has ranked Victoria as the highest taxing state in Australia, with state taxes
Always too hawkish, Wazza McKibbin is too hawkish again today. Modelling by Australian National University economist Warwick McKibbin and KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne, released separately on Monday, found Trump’s tariffs would cause the Australian dollar to depreciate, sparking a near-term resurgence in inflationary pressures and putting pressure on household budgets. McKibbin, a former Reserve
The Australian’s Tom Dusevic published a strange report claiming that ‘Big Australia’ is over. “Forgive me for reviving an ancient tool of voter vibe but the worm has turned on Big Australia. The post-pandemic people surge is fading”, Dusevic wrote. “Whoever wins on May 3 will inherit a normal migration inflow, but the pandemic’s long
The Market Ear says maybe. Oversold superlatives Earlier today (here) we referred to the classical quote: “be greedy when others are fearful”, pointing out among other things just how extremely oversold this had become: “We have not seen this oversold index futures in “forever”. Oversold can obviously stay oversold for longer than most think possible,
This timeline is getting crazier as Wall Street initially followed other stock markets in crash mode before rallying on fake tweets about nonsensical tariff pauses while Diaper Don spat his dummy about the Chinese counter tariffs while announcing “negotiations” with other countries were supposedly underway. The Europeans are being more strategic about things alongside the
The global trade war has escalated with US President Donald Trump threatening China with an added 50% tariff, which would take the total levy to 104%. On his social media account Blue Sky, President Trump announced retaliatory action if Beijing doesn’t drop its 34% tariff on US goods. “Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid!”, President