The IEA has done an analysis of the immense looming global gas glut. It is even bigger than I thought. Following the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2024 and 2025. During this period, supply fundamentals remained tight and prices stayed well above their historic levels. This limited
Australia is the world’s leader in creating products and policies that load households with debt. This year, we have seen the federal Labor government introduce its 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers as well as exclude student debts from loan servicing calculations. We have also seen Australian lenders announce new stimulatory mortgage products, including 40-year
It’s a new paradigm for stocks! The Market Ear. Retail buying still relentless 1.October, September, and August 2025 mark the biggest monthly retail buy imbalances since 2019, with September hitting a record ~$3bn in a single day. 2. Since the S&P 500’s April 8th low, retail traders have poured in roughly $292bn, more than any
Wall Street rallied again overnight on the continued potential US-China trade deal as risk markets pivot towards the expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week. The USD pulled back against some of the majors, particularly against the burgeoning Canadian Loonie as PM Mark Carney continues his Operation “Reach Around” while Euro range traded
DXY faded a little. AUD roared on the spot. CNY faded. Gold is going lower. Oil can’t even squeeze the shorts. AI metals are the new gold. RIO is the chosen one. EM to the moon. Junk needs to stay green. Yields are melting except in Australia, where the RBA has dislocated the bond market.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its annual national accounts for the 2024-25 financial year, which includes extensive data on land values. Land values underpinning the Australian housing market increased by 7.0% during the 2024-25 financial year. In 2024-25, Australia’s land was valued at $9.8 trillion, with residential land accounting for 85% ($8.3
A few wobbles across Asian share markets with the catalyst of another potential rare earth trade deal between the Trump regime and Japan helped Yen strengthen against USD. The fallout from Friday’s not so firm US CPI print is keeping the USD down against most of the majors as expectation of a cut from the
The following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro illustrates that, in real inflation-adjusted terms, New Zealand dwelling values have crashed back to 2019 pre-pandemic levels: At the same time, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate by 3.0% to 2.5%, which has driven mortgage rates sharply lower. As a
Data released in the U.S. prior to the government shutdown painted an optimistic picture of the economy. Second-quarter economic growth was revised up to 3.8% annualised, and consumer spending grew by 2.8% in the third quarter. Although comforting, these data raise a question: why is growth so resilient when other economic indicators, including employment and
The Market Ear has the rub. Just got too extreme We have been pointing out the case for a gold correction recently, here and here. Things simply got way too extreme. One of those measures is just how dislocated gold got vs 200 day moving average. Things have calmed down some over the past days, but the dislocation