Morgan Stanley with the note. The headlines have already started to trickle in: Canada repeals digital services tax, Vietnam agreement secured, EU on track. These seem like the previews before the movie starts – but what are we actually watching? Many of our conversations with clients point to July 8/9 as a catalyst for risk.
When it comes to economic statistics, few are as hotly contested as government employment data. Issues such as survey response rates, one hour of work per week counting as being employed and the likelihood of significant later revisions are often cited as potential distortions to the “true” picture of the nation’s labour market. For this
In recent years, the hard reality of the economic, social and fiscal situation of Britain have gradually come to the forefront. Some examples have been surprisingly humorous, such as the livestream of a lettuce that ended up outliving the government of Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss. Others have been cold and concrete, such as the
In the debate surrounding the future of Australia’s economy and what it will look like, the issue of the resources sector is often one of the most hotly debated elements. At first glance, it’s easy to think that the economy can do without it, that we are little different from any number of other advanced
The Market Ear on equities. Approaching neutral “This week, positioning has continued to rise and is approaching neutral but is still a little shy of it (-0.14sd, 35th percentile)” Source: Deutsche Bank Far from max long Goldman’s Wilson sums it up: “…on our latest estimates CTAs would have another $95b of US equities to buy
The ferrous market is not a strong believer in Chinese steel production cuts so far. Scuttlebutt is building, though. Steelmakers in northern China’s Tangshan city have received notice for environmental protection-related production control, information provider Tangshan Baochun Data said in a note on its WeChat account on Saturday. Some local mills have undertaken maintenance on
Because, increasingly, you will have neither. Ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s upcoming trip to China, Sussan Ley said Australia should be wary of the expansion of an existing free trade agreement to include artificial intelligence and the digital economy. In an opinion piece in the Financial Review, China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, urged
Of all the narratives that exist within the realm of Australian housing and economics, one of the most hotly debated is “If housing is so expensive, how are people buying into the market?” Today, we’re going to take a data-driven deep dive into how Australians continue to enter the housing market for the first time.
It’s Groundhog Day for Aussie households. As I noted yesterday, the gas cartel shock of the 2022 Ukraine war profiteering is once again landing on households as state subsidies roll off. Further evidence has appeared in the credit card data. Westpac. Energy bill relief has been a key plank of the ‘cost of living’ support
It is amusing to watch some interest rate forecasters stick to tiny indicators. ANZ is one. After two consecutive months of decline, the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series has bounced back, from 114.8 in May to 116.9 in June. The unemployment rate and the hours-based underutilisation rate (a broader measure of spare capacity) have been