Many argue that iron ore is cheap. But above $90, it is still very expensive. That is the tell on why you should not buy miners now, even though they appear cheap on NTM and dividends. The reason is, the market is yet to discount the entrance of Simandou, which is actually going better than
The Australian has a consistent viewpoint on the use of gas that is clearly destructive to the Australian economy (and, therefore, itself). It is pro-gas, but it very rarely argues in favour of policies like domestic reservation, even when they are promoted by the Coalition. To some extent, this is probably ideological. The Murdoch Press
The Market Ear with the charts. Already bombed out This email is just a reminder that sentiment and positioning metrics were already pretty depressed going into this weekend. From hedge funds to quants, longs are light which should leave less room for an unwind panic. Here are a couple of our favorite charts. Just average
Australia’s recent productivity growth has been among the worst in the advanced world, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro. This month, federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers launched a productivity summit aimed at pulling the nation out of its funk that has seen per capita growth and living standards decline. The Guardian’s economics editor,
Throughout last year, CBA published data showing that older Australians had increased their spending significantly above inflation, whereas younger Australians had cut back hard on spending. For example, in the year to Q3 2024, Australians aged 70-plus increased their spending on essential categories by 7.4% and spending on discretionary categories by 8.0%. Both were well
DXY fell Friday, but WWIII should be enough to restore it this morning. AUD is bunkering. We’ll see a nice oil pop this morning. I say short it. MAGA ain’t pleased. Metals grind on. The mining bear market is huge and only just begun. EM meh. A safe haven bod for Treasuries. Stocks only go
Goldman has presented four possible scenarios for the oil market arising from the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facility: Scenario One, we stay in the present scenario where we do not have a meaningful or any loss of supply… I think in that situation we stay around these sort of levels because we are seeing some curtailment of
Oil prices will likely gap 20% higher this morning when markets open given the illegal attack on Iran by the Trump regime over the weekend, with equity futures indicating higher volatility as well. This will truly re-set risk markets across the board, with all eyes on US Treasuries for signs this conflagration could have an
The Q1 national accounts, released earlier this month, showed that the private sector economy remains locked in recession. Australia’s per capita GDP declined by 0.2% over the quarter, the ninth decline in 12 quarters. It was also the longest (but not deepest) decline in GDP per capita in modern recorded history. The decline in per
The ABS released its official population data for Q4 2024, which showed that both immigration and population growth continue to ease back from record highs. In Q4 2024, Australia’s population grew by 91,100, down from 121,600 in the same quarter the year before. Net overseas migration (NOM) of 68,000, down from 99,500 in Q4 2023,