New Zealand’s economy continues to face severe challenges. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s GDP growth nowcast is pointing to a 0.2% decline in real GDP in Q2 2025. New Zealand’s labour market is also in dire straits, with unemployment and underutilisation rates soaring to near-decade
At the end of 2024, CoreLogic (now Cotality) reported that the national dwelling value to income ratio and the percentage of income required to service a new mortgage were tracking at a record high. Cotality’s July housing report showed that the median dwelling value across Australia’s capital cities was $926,854 at the end of July.
The Market Ear on bearish seasonality. Two-faced market Market sentiment surveys and hedge fund positioning data continue to be far from exuberant, but there is of course still an insane amount of buying going on. Let’s have a look at the latest in terms of flow and positioning data out over the weekend, and why
RBC with the note. As anticipated, the Anchorage meeting between President Trump and Putin yielded no serious deal specifics but plenty of smiles and positive sound bites signaling diplomatic progress. Ahead of Friday, we noted that the prospects of meaningful sanctions relief stemming from this summit were minimal, due in large part to the fact
DXY is refusing to go away. AUD is looking shaky. CNY stable. Gold and oil becalmed. Metals are troubled. Mining bear is back. EM stocks are filling the upside breakout. Junk fine. Yields firming a little. Stocks stuck. Morgan Stanley has a take I agree with. The good news was tariff price pressures were muted
South Australia is held up as the nation’s renewable energy leader with the highest penetration of wind and solar generation in the nation. South Australia shut down its last coal-fired power plant in 2016 and now generates more than 70% of its electricity from renewable sources, mainly wind and solar. However, the shutting down of
Wetspac with the note. Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index up 5.7% to 98.5 in August. • RBA’s third rate cut for the year provides a clear boost. • Long period of pessimism finally coming to an end. • Consumers less anxious about finances, cautiously positive on economy. • Sentiment lift broad-based, not just confined to those
Amidst the release of the Reserve Bank’s August Statement on Monetary Policy and the Albanese government’s upcoming roundtable summit, the issue of productivity growth has become a source of great debate and some controversy. On Twitter (also known as X), Nationals Senator Matt Canavan posted a chart from the Australian Financial Review showing productivity growth
The ferrous complex has flamed out as we approach the Beijing warmongering season. Channel checks by Goldman are OK. Orderbook trend- The forward orderbooks of most steel mills were mostly flat MoM in Aug, in line with seasonality. High-frequency weekly data suggests current steel demand down by 2.8% yoy for construction steel and up 5.1%
At the end of 2024, Australian rental affordability was tracking a record low, according to Cotality (formerly Corelogic), with the median household required to spend 31% of their income on renting the median home. Cotality’s latest quarterly rental also reported that national median rents have risen by 43% over the last five years, causing the average