The Market Ear on the roaring bear. Equity vs bond panic VIX has left bond volatility behind. Source: Refinitiv Not all “panic” is equal VIX continues surging, but skew continues to do very little. A notable volatility “anomaly”. Source: Refinitiv Term structure panic VIX term structure exploding even higher, with the short end of the
It’s risk off across stock markets as Trump goes all Lord Farquaad aka Paul Keating admitting a US recession is all but coming due to his tariffs taunts with Wall Street falling more than 2% across the board with the NASDAQ falling 4% in one session! So much winning! European stocks are feeling the heat
DXY held on as safe haven flows pick up despite the new super EUR. AUD crashed against everything. Lead boots stable Oil needs to be in the $50s. Commods are far too high for a US recession. Miners = dogs. EM likewsie. Junk is serene. Maybe it needs to break to flush this bearish impulse.
In January, Domain published the following chart showing how the proportion of income a median household needed to pay the median rent hit a record high 33% in Q3 2024. REA Group has released its Q4 Rental Affordability Report, which found that rental affordability is at its worst level on record, driven by surging rents
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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In the 2010 federal election, the incumbent Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, won a second term after forming a minority government with three independent MPs. A result similar to the 2010 federal election looks like the most likely outcome of the upcoming federal election. The latest Newspoll for The Australian shows
Labor greybeard, Bill Kelty, has delivered the government, especially Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers, a stinging slap across the face. Former trade union leader and economic trailblazer Kelty, whose work with the Hawke and Keating Labor governments helped usher in two decades of prosperity, described the reality of many Australians’ declining living standards as “political kryptonite”
In January, Domain published a series of charts showing that Australia’s housing affordability was the worst in recorded history. The national dwelling value-to-income ratio hit an equal record high of 8.0 in Q3 2024, up from a 20-year average of 6.7. The amount of time taken for the median-income household to save a deposit on
Wholesale electricity prices have been falling in recent days. However, they are still double year on year! Prices have been easing in the weak demand shoulder season as the gas cartel plays dead going into the election. However, ahead are still some very difficult problems with very severe outcomes. With futures up 25% year on
Australians have endured the largest cost-of-living shock in modern history. The following chart deflates the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official wage price index against the ABS’ cost of living index for employee households. On this measure, Australian real wages in Q4 2024 were tracking 10.1% below the peak at around Q1 2012 levels. The