As noted many times, the idiocy of the Australian economy often plays out in the singular goal of local fund managers. To be long either mining or banks at the right moment, so you can outperform your peers. That’s all there is to it in the Houses and Holes economy. Recently, we had some bold
US President Donald Trump has flagged an increase in his ‘liberation day’ baseline tariff to between 15% and 20%. Trump said countries that do not negotiate a special deal with the US will face an increase in the baseline tariff, which was originally set at 10%. “We are going to be setting a tariff, for
Who would want to be a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer in Australia? Not only are they dealing with intense competition from online behemoths like Amazon, Temu, and Shein, but they are still facing sagging sales growth. The latest retail trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) highlights the point, with retail sales volumes rising
Criticism of the RBA is usually implicit. Westpac is clear about it. Normally, monetary policy decisions should not come down to a single number tipping the balance. Monetary policy affects the economy with a lag and thus needs to be forward-looking. This time around, though, as in several recent quarters, the latest read for underlying
The ferrous complex is in a stark reversal. The driver is a supply-side rationalisation of steel output, but it is vague. Goldman. On the macro policy stance, the Politburo required that macro policy should remain pro-growth, and its intensity should be strengthened at an appropriate time (“持续发力、适时加力”). Policymakers reiterated their pledge for implementing a “more
In the years since the pandemic, Canada has run one of the largest migration programs in the world in per capita terms, with its level of population growth rising to almost 3% in 2024, according to figures from the World Bank. This left Canada ranked 11th in the world for population growth, sandwiched between Angola
Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro and Alex Joiner from IFM Investors published superb sets of charts on Wednesday’s Q2 CPI inflation report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which all but guarantees a 25 bp rate cut at next month’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner,
DXY is up and away! AUD broke its rising channel. Lead boots plodded over a cliff. Gold hit, oil the shit. Copper lol. The big bear is back. EM caput. Junk reverse. Yields firmed. Stocks held up. US GDP was at 3% in Q2, materially higher than expectations. ADP jobs rebounded above 104k. And the
Wall Street failed to make new highs overnight as the Federal Reserve held fire on any interest rate cuts with European shares rallying instead as the USD soared to new heights against the major currency pairs. The Trump regime has seen major trade deals with Brazil and India fail due to more bullying from
Cotality’s daily dwelling value index shows that across the five major capital city markets, home values rose by 0.6% in July, led by Perth (0.9%) and Brisbane (0.8%). Over the July quarter, values rose by 1.8% across the five major capital cities, with Perth (2.5%) and Brisbane (2.3%) again leading the way. The following chart