DXY is breaking down as Tariff Man turns into Deal Man. AUD to the moon! Still room to close the jaws. And now for another one-month commodity bubble. Big miners past the worst. LMAO! EM loving DXY. Junk fizzer. Yields eased. Stocks struggling ATH. This is the kind of squeezy action we need to puke
On Thursday, I reported how the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) suggested that real per capita household disposable income may not recover back to its Q2 2022 peak until the early 2030s. The situation is even worse for real wages. The following chart shows actual real wage growth as
Its a sea of red across most Asian share markets as His MAGA-Sty tries yet another round of tariffs following the falling in line behind Russia over Ukraine, although other risk markets have been able to absorb this new volatility a little better. The USD is back on the ropes again with Yen sharply higher
Gareth Aird and Stephen Wu, economists at CBA, published a report (presented below) explaining how the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) lowered the neutral estimate of Australia’s cash rate to around 2.9%, down from its previous estimate of 3.5%. This lowering of the neutral cash rate increases the likelihood
Late last year, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) became embroiled in its own corruption scandal. When the Royal Commission on the Robodebt Scheme issued its report, the commissioner recommended that six individuals be referred to the NACC for investigation. Many Robodebt victims were angered when the NACC declared that it would not implement the recommendation.
Australian households have endured the sharpest decline in per capita disposable incomes on record. Since peaking in Q2 2022, real per capita household disposable income has declined by around 8%. The chart below shows real per capita household disposable income in a long-term historical context. The February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) contains forecasts on
Victoria has the nation’s largest per capita debt and the lowest credit rating. According to the recent budget update, Victoria’s net debt increased from $36 billion to $155 billion in the last decade. The state’s net debt is forecast to increase to $187 billion over the three years to 2026-27. The bloating of Victoria’s public
The strength of Australia’s labour market was the biggest factor working against an interest rate cut at Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting. It was also the biggest upside risk highlighted in the RBA’s statement on the decision. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Q4 2024 wage price
As Westpac illustrates, the RBA’s wage fgrowth outlook is ridiculous. In the December quarter, the Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.7% which at three decimal places was just 0.654%, a whisker off rounding down to 0.6%. This result is going to make it much harder for the RBA to achieve their June 2025 forecast of
In late 2023, ABC Fact Check caught Treasurer Jim Chalmers “misleading” about the growth in Australian full-time earnings. In August 2024 and November 2024, Treasurer Chalmers was again caught misleading voters about Australian wages. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the wage price index for Q4 2024, which showed that wages grew