Last month’s interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was about as hawkish as possible. The RBA’s statement explicitly noted that the decision to cut the official cash rate by 0.25% was ‘line-ball’ with upside risks to inflation remaining: “However, upside risks remain. Some recent labour market data have been unexpectedly strong,
Why wouldn’t they be, living through a depression that cannot be named? Goldman. Slightly more sanguine on China macro and market outlooks, but more concerned on the US growth outlook Thanks to the latest DeepSeek and Artificial Intelligence (AI) related developments, some green shoots in the property sector (e.g., home sales and prices in large
The latest quarterly retail sales data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that real per capita sales increased by 0.4% in Q4 2024, the highest growth rate since Q1 2022. January’s retail sales data have been released, which rose by 0.3% over the month, in line with economists’ expectations. Over the year, retail
What do you do when the food sector gets together to tell the truth about the government’s failures? Fix the problems? No! Pay them off. The Australian. The food sector has united to accuse the Albanese government of failing to act on rising prices despite a growing number of working Australians going hungry, warning that
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday released the Q4 2024 Business Indicators, which showed that non-mining company profits have never been higher (excluding the pandemic spike). Despite the stellar profits, Australian Industry Group (AIG) CEO, Innes Willox, attacked what he labelled a “wages blowout”, which is placing “mounting pressure on business balance sheets”:
Gerard Minack stating the obvious with his usual savoir-faire. Australia returns to mediocre growth Australia is recovering from a year when policy tightening snuffed out private sector growth. The recovery will likely be uneven reflecting still-tight monetary policy. Trend per capita growth will remain mediocre because low investment and high population growth unsurprisingly lead to
Iron ore was clubbed below $100 yesterday but bounced a bit overnight. The China steel PMI is weak, especially new orders. The NPC is weighing as well. Iron ore slumped below $100 a ton for the first time since mid-January as some steel mills curbed production to ensure blue skies during the government’s upcoming policy
ANZ CEO Shayne Elliot described Victoria as “one of the toughest” places to do business. It is easy to see why. The Victorian government introduced a payroll tax surcharge in the 2021-22 State Budget as part of a mental health and wellness levy, but only for businesses with a payroll of $10 million or more.
Increasingly, it appears DXY is topped and EUR bottomed. AUD follows EUR but it will be held back by CNY this time. Gold up. Is oil about to do what it should, finally? Chinese demand growth is dead. OPEC to go ahead with production increase. Bonus chart! There is room for lower oil. Commods meh.
Wall Street crumbled overnight as the realisation has set in that the Don in the Oval Office is hell bent on creating a recession in the US with the slew of tariffs that are now going to go ahead against almost every single major trading partner. The latest ISM print didn’t help either while European