To quote independent housing analyst Cameron Kusher, “Only in Australia would a government set up a housing fund that doesn’t build any new homes for several years and then might end up needing a bailout”. On Friday, it was reported that Labor’s signature Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF), which was created with $10 billion of government
Over the weekend, we saw both sides of politics ‘jump the shark’ on housing policy. The Albanese government effectively announced a state-sponsored subprime mortgage scheme by promising to allow all first home buyers to purchase a home with only a 5% deposit, with the government guaranteeing up to 15% of the loan value, thereby eliminating
DXY is a falling meteor. Australian dollar crash up! Concrete boots did OK. Shorts were trimmed last week. Falling DXY is pushing up commods and gold. Mining relief. EM too. Spreads still stressed. Treasures no bueno. Stocks are doing a bit better. I am still watching Treasuries for where markets are going next. The stress
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on permanent and long-term arrivals and departures to Australia last week. There were 111,740 net permanent and long-term arrivals in February, with 158,980 arriving over the quarter. The following chart from Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro illustrates how net overseas migration appears to have rebounded strongly in
The Market Ear on equities. The outlook is so awful… When macro economists sound the most bearish, it often means the worst is already priced in. Markets don’t wait for confirmation—they front-run fear. Historically, when the consensus gets overwhelmingly negative, the actual downside rarely plays out as expected. Yes, we admit that this process has
One of the most volatile trading week’s has come and gone but all the signs remain that volatility is here to stay with weekend news that the “Art of the Deal” maker has already given up his key Trump card by exempting Chinese computers and smart phones from the 145% tariff slaps, while China is
The Q4 2024 national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that households were stuck in a recession. Real per capita household consumption fell for a record eighth consecutive quarter. This followed a record 8% drop in real per capita household disposable income. CBA has released its Household Spending Insights (HSI) for March,
The Albanese government is primed to win the upcoming federal election, with all recent opinion polls showing them leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis. House prices will undoubtedly skyrocket following the election of a second-term Labor government. First, the latest interest rate predictions from the futures market tip that Australia’s official cash rate
FT Alphaville wraps up the sell-side views on tariffs. This was the week when the tariff tantrum morphed into something much more serious. Analysts and investors are now openly questioning whether the US can keep its position at the apex of global finance. Alphaville has raided our inbox for some of the more eye-catching bits
Should you invest now or wait for stock markets to settle? This is the number one question on every investor’s lips. The answer: It depends what kind of investor you are. Risk profiles and calculations can give you an indication of risk tolerance. But it is not until you get a decent market downturn that