Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro posted the following chart, which shows the collapse in mortgage rates in New Zealand. “The weighted-average interest rate on outstanding mortgages in New Zealand declined another 9bps to 5.91% in April, taking the cumulative fall to nearly 50bps since the peak”, noted Fabo. “More is coming”. Falling mortgage rates have
The official Q1 CPI inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that the policy-important trimmed mean inflation rate fell to 2.9% year over year, staying within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target range of 2% to 3%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s media appearance following last month’s 0.25% rate cut suggested
The Market Ear still sees fuel to go higher. King SMH SMH continues the squeeze higher, approaching year highs quickly. The bounce on the 21 day and the lower part of the perfect channel was a schoolbook example. Make sure to roll the call spreads into higher strikes for max optionality. Source: LSEG Workspace Not many longs
It’s not clear that the seasonal June slowdown is done for iron ore. The market remains weak. MySteel pins one issue. China’s total imports of iron ore during January-May reached 486.4 million tonnes, falling by 5.2% compared with the same period last year, according to the latest statistics released by the country’s General Administration of
Australian home values hit their highest level on record in May. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment index, released on Tuesday, showed that Australians have turned bullish on house prices, expecting significant appreciation in the period ahead. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, house price expectations have surged to a cyclical high. “With strong
One year ago, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver estimated that Australia’s cumulative housing shortage was in excess of 200,000 dwellings. The chart from Oliver showed that Australia’s housing undersupply began in the mid-2000s when the federal government more than doubled net overseas migration. However, the shortage was almost eradicated when immigration turned negative during the
According to Westpac, financial markets have now priced a 97% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will reduce the official cash rate (OCR) at its monetary policy board meeting in July. The case for more rate cuts was strengthened by the Q1 national accounts released last week, which showed that aggregate GDP growth
The NAB survey yesterday was a shocker. There is nothing good on that table. Worse, the Aussie economy is supposed to be going through a hand-off from fading government spending to a rising consumer. Somebody forgot to tell the latter as retail fell off a cliff. In other words, the economy has reverted to a
DXY weak but holding. The AUD tractor climbs on. Lead boots have stalled. Machines are chasing oil, expect up, then down again. Metals no bueno. Miners are terrible. EM trying but tied to DXY. Yields sliding a little again. Stocks to the moon! I still think we’re headed into a combined US/China slowdown. I do
The Department of Redundancy Department is Albo’s core portfolio. From The Australian. Business leaders will push for holistic tax reform, cuts to red tape and faster approvals for major projects as Anthony Albanese lays the groundwork for a second-term economic agenda by holding a productivity roundtable in Canberra months after his thumping election victory. With